A closely watched Pennsylvania U.S. House race is nearly even less than a week before the Nov. 3 midterm election, according to a poll released Oct. 24 by The New York Times, The Philadelphia Inquirer and Siena University.
The survey found Democratic challenger Bob Harvie, a Bucks County commissioner, with support from 48% of likely voters. Republican U.S. Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick received 46%. Another 6% said they were undecided or declined to answer.
The poll was conducted from Oct. 16 through Oct. 22 among 400 likely voters in Pennsylvania’s 1st Congressional District. Independent voters were evenly divided, with Harvie and Fitzpatrick each receiving 44% support in that group.
Issues in the race
Harvie held narrow advantages over Fitzpatrick among respondents on several issues included in the survey. The Democratic challenger led on the cost of living, immigration, foreign wars, artificial intelligence and data centers, and corruption.
- Cost of living: Harvie 46%, Fitzpatrick 43%
- Immigration: Harvie 47%, Fitzpatrick 45%
- Foreign wars: Harvie 47%, Fitzpatrick 42%
- Artificial intelligence and data centers: Harvie 43%, Fitzpatrick 40%
- Corruption: Harvie 47%, Fitzpatrick 40%
The district is one of a limited number of competitive contests that could affect control of the House. Republicans hold a narrow majority, with 218 seats to Democrats’ 214, while all 435 House seats are on the ballot.
Cook Political Report, an independent, nonpartisan election tracker, had previously rated the district “likely Republican.” Earlier this month, it changed the rating to “leaning Republican,” reflecting a closer contest while still giving Fitzpatrick the advantage.
“Both parties continue to believe GOP Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick is probably headed back to Congress. But there’s no doubt that as the environment continues to deteriorate for Republicans, this race could be quite close,” Cook Political Report said in its analysis.
Fitzpatrick is seeking another term against Harvie after facing negative advertising directed at the Democratic challenger. The poll places the two candidates within two percentage points among likely voters as the campaign enters its final days.
The race is being watched alongside other competitive House contests because the chamber’s current margin leaves little room for changes in individual districts. Voters will choose between Fitzpatrick and Harvie in Pennsylvania’s 1st Congressional District on Nov. 3.
