Artificial intelligence is affecting the U.S. labor market, but available data do not provide a definitive count of jobs eliminated specifically by the technology. Companies are reorganizing around AI while also responding to cost pressures and broader economic conditions, making the effect of automation difficult to isolate.
Goldman Sachs estimates that AI reduced U.S. monthly payroll growth by about 16,000 jobs over the past year. The firm also estimated that the technology increased the unemployment rate by 0.1 percentage point. The estimate measures a net drag on job growth rather than a tally of workers whose positions were directly eliminated by AI.
Layoffs have multiple causes
Microsoft’s decision in October to offer voluntary buyouts to about 60,000 eligible employees illustrates the difficulty of assigning a single cause to workforce reductions. Microsoft is working to control costs and finance its expanding AI investments, but the buyout figure does not establish that all of those positions are being eliminated because of artificial intelligence.
Reuters reported on Microsoft’s buyout program. The broader labor-market analysis also distinguishes between jobs that technology replaces and jobs in which AI works alongside people. Goldman Sachs found that AI is creating employment opportunities in some occupations where the technology complements human workers.
Reemployment is taking longer for some workers
The effect of an AI-related displacement can continue after a worker leaves a job. A Goldman Sachs analysis of more than 15,000 workers who lost their jobs between 2016 and the period covered by the analysis found that workers displaced by AI were taking longer to find new employment.
The analysis focused on workers in occupations more exposed to automation. For people seeking entry-level positions or changing careers, the findings place the emphasis on the time required to secure another job rather than only on the initial layoff. The available figures still do not separate every AI-related job loss from layoffs caused by restructuring, cost-cutting or other pressures.
- Goldman Sachs estimated a net reduction of about 16,000 U.S. payroll gains per month linked to AI over the past year.
- The firm estimated a 0.1-percentage-point increase in unemployment connected to the technology.
- Goldman Sachs also identified occupations where AI complements workers and creates employment opportunities.
The broader labor market
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the U.S. economy lost 92,000 jobs in February and that the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. Those figures describe the overall labor market and do not identify how many losses resulted from AI. They provide context for a market in which technology, corporate restructuring and other economic forces are operating at the same time.
The evidence points to an uneven effect: AI can reduce demand for some work while supporting hiring in occupations where employees use the technology as a tool. For workers whose jobs disappear, Goldman Sachs’ analysis indicates that finding another position may take longer, while the total number of AI-caused layoffs remains difficult to determine.
